A report published as part of the Protein Futures NZ project (funded through the Our Land and Water National Science Challenge) has found that alternative proteins could have a significant impact on farming in New Zealand.
The report outlines four alternative protein scenarios:
- Demand for alt proteins continues to increase but does not significantly affect animal protein supply chains. Growth is slow due to technical barriers. This scenario is described as unlikely due to the current level of innovation, interest, and investment in the sector.
- Demand for alt proteins continues and precision fermentation takes off. Consumer acceptance is driven by sustainability concerns. However, the development of cultivated products is stalled due to technical barriers.
- Plant-based products take off, and some of the barriers facing cultivated and fermented proteins are removed. Other emerging proteins shift to support the development of enhanced plant-based products. Again, sustainability drives consumer acceptance.
- All barriers to the success of alternative proteins are removed, or in the process of being overcome. Taste and texture have been improved, and price parity has been achieved for all alt proteins. Production scale has increased, while regulation and market access are based on environmental outcomes such as greenhouse gas emissions.
Land use changes
Each scenario would have a different impact on land use in New Zealand. In scenario 1, little would change, while scenario 2 would lead to a 35% decrease in the land used for dairy production and a 50% increase in arable area in Canterbury, Southland, Wairarapa, and Horizons.
In the third scenario, there would be a 15% reduction in dairy area and a further 15% reduction in sheep and beef area (the latter 15% would go to forestry). Arable area would double across all flat land. Finally, the fourth scenario would see dairy area reduced by 35%, the sheep and beef sector reduced by 25% (with this going to forestry), and arable area again doubling across all flat land.
Environmental and economic impact
Scenarios 3 and 4 would significantly boost employment and total economic output, while reducing sheep, beef, and dairy output. The arable and forestry sectors would see increased total output. Overall, these changes would yield several positive environmental outcomes, including significantly reduced emissions, nutrient loss, and phosphate loss.
A Food Frontiers report published last year found that the alt protein industry in Australia and New Zealand has grown tenfold in recent years, but noted that the speed of growth has led to supply chain bottlenecks that need to be addressed. Meanwhile, the Protein Futures NZ report warns that the increased ability for countries to produce their own alternative proteins could decrease the demand for New Zealand exports.
“Countries that are dependent on importing food from countries such as Aotearoa [New Zealand], like China and the UK, will increasingly be able to produce more of their own alternatives to animal protein as technology advances,” said research lead Jon Manhire in a statement.
