Studies & Numbers

BCG Report Finds a 50% Market Share of Alternative Proteins Equivalent to Removing Half of All Gas-Fueled Cars

A new report published today by Boston Consulting Group (BCG), The Good Food Institute (GFI), and Synthesis Capital, titled What the Alternative Protein Industry Can Learn from EV Companies, states that if alternative proteins reached half of the market share of the global protein market, it would reduce agriculture and land use greenhouse gas emissions by almost a third by 2050. This shift would mitigate 5 gigatons of CO2 equivalents annually, the equivalent of removing 50% of gas-fueled cars from the road.

“The parallels between the EV and alternative protein industries are striking. Both are disruptive technologies taking on incumbents whose products are rooted in consumer culture and identity. Both are responsible for large slices of global GHG emissions (passenger road transportation for 10%; animal agriculture for 15% to 20%). This positions EVs and alternative proteins as two of the most meaningful solutions to mitigate climate change,” state the authors.

But while there are parallels, alt proteins are falling drastically behind in terms of growth and impact. The electric vehicle industry grew from 0.2% of total new car sales in 2012 to 18% in 2023. In contrast, according to the paper, plant-based meat has consistently represented only around 1% of total meat dollar sales in US retail over the past five years.

supermarket with PB products
Image courtesy Beyond Animal

Devastating lack of government support

As we discussed in our April report, The Shocking Truth of How Subsidies Impact the Cost of Plant-Based vs. Animal Meat, the critical and embedded inequality between the funding of animal-based products and their more sustainable alternatives is one that influences consumer spending and behavior, leading to an immense effect on the health of people and planet.

Animal agriculture accounts for 15% to 20% of greenhouse gas emissions, compared to 10% for passenger road transportation. But, tragically, alternative protein companies secured just one-eighth of the private capital invested in the electric vehicle industry from 2017 to 2023. Electric vehicles received approximately $40 billion in direct purchase subsidies. In comparison, the alternative protein industry received $635 million in government support in 2022.

“If private companies, governments, and investors come together, they can lay the foundation for a food system that is more sustainable, as well as more secure.”

“Still, there are early signs that the alternative protein industry is gaining regulatory support. The US, Denmark, Israel, Singapore, and South Korea created policy frameworks for cultivated meat, and the US, Israel, and Singapore approved a groundbreaking fermentation-derived animal protein. But for the alternative protein industry to achieve its full economic, environmental, and food security benefits, governments need to step up their support,” the paper encourages.

“Achieving mass adoption of alternative protein is an opportunity we can’t afford to miss in the drive to cut emissions and combat climate change,” said Elfrun von Koeller, BCG partner and managing director, and report coauthor. “There are many lessons that the industry, as well as governments and regulators, can learn from the successful electric vehicles sector, which also faced early hurdles to consumer adoption and expansion. If private companies, governments, and investors come together, they can lay the foundation for a food system that is more sustainable, as well as more secure.”

a plate with a steak takes center stage, representing the connection between meat consumption and environmental degradation Generative AI
©catalin-stock.adobe.com

The promise of alternative proteins

Emma Ignaszewski, Senior Associate Director, Industry Intelligence & Initiatives at the Good Food Institute, states, “Electric vehicles are a powerful climate solution that doesn’t require consumers to make significant behavioral changes. They simply offer a more sustainable swap-in for gas-powered cars. Alternative proteins offer a strikingly similar promise: enjoy your burger, but produced with far lower greenhouse gas emissions than conventional meat. Securing public funding—which has been instrumental for EV innovation—is critical for alternative proteins to scale and compete with conventional meat on taste and price. And competing on these drivers of consumer choice is the blueprint for alternative proteins to help decarbonize the food sector, just as electric vehicles can help decarbonize the transportation sector.”

“Securing public funding—which has been instrumental for EV innovation—is critical for alternative proteins to scale and compete with conventional meat on taste and price”

Rosie Wardle, co-founder and Partner at Synthesis Capital, comments: “Government support for alternative proteins is gaining momentum, with policymakers across the globe recognizing the potential of the sector to generate significant benefits, including achieving climate commitments, ensuring food security, mitigating environmental damage, and boosting economies. However, much more support is needed for the sector to deliver on its potential. This new report offers insights into how stakeholders can advance the industry, in order to create a future where these products are no longer ‘alternative.'”

Further information regarding the critical need to shift government subsidies:

Boosting the Alternative Protein Market Through Reformation of VAT and Subsidies

World Bank Recommends Shifting “Wasteful” Subsidies Away From Animal Agriculture

EU Climate Advisers Recommend Shifting Subsidies Away From Animal Ag & Encouraging Plant-Based Diets

$7.3 Trillion Investor Group Urges G20 to Reform “Harmful” Agricultural Subsidies

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