A new study reveals potential economic benefits that could arise from a shift towards plant-based food consumption in the United States. The research, commissioned by Faunalytics and conducted by BW Research Partnership, explores how this shift could impact key economic indicators such as job creation, GDP growth, tax revenue, and labor income by 2040.
“These results signal that a plant-based food system likely isn’t a win-lose scenario — it’s a win-win”
The study evaluates three hypothetical scenarios: a plateau in plant-based food market share, a moderate growth scenario, and a substantial growth scenario. The results suggest that even a modest shift towards plant-based products could yield positive economic effects, particularly in job creation. Under the moderate growth scenario, thousands of new jobs could be generated. A more substantial shift, in which plant-based foods become significantly more common, could result in tens of thousands of new jobs, surpassing a 3% increase in employment compared to current levels.
In terms of broader economic impact, the moderate growth scenario suggests small but positive contributions to GDP (0.3%), tax revenue (0.2%), and labor income (0.4%). In contrast, the substantial growth scenario predicts more significant increases, with GDP rising by 4%, tax revenue by 2%, and labor income by 4%.
The research highlights that while the plant-based sector has grown in recent years, continued growth would require further innovation, investment, and possibly government support. Despite the benefits outlined in the study, the authors caution that the full economic potential of a plant-based transition will only be realized if plant-based products gain significant market share, replacing animal-based foods at a much higher rate than they currently do.
Impact on agriculture and food production
Agriculture and food production are key components of the US economy, with more than 22 million jobs tied to these industries as of 2022. Given the current reliance on animal products in US diets, any significant shift in consumer behavior could have wide-reaching implications for the economy. However, this transition has been difficult to quantify until now, as limited research has explored the economic impacts of a plant-based food system.
The study calls for further research into the economic implications, including localized impacts, global trade effects, and strategies for mitigating potential job losses in industries that could be negatively impacted. This could include worker retraining programs and targeted support for communities that are currently reliant on animal agriculture.
“These results signal that a plant-based food system likely isn’t a win-lose scenario — it’s a win-win. More sustainable consumption habits are also better for workers and the economy. To me, this indicates the importance of training and resources for workers in industrial animal agriculture. I’d like to see more NGOs tackle this head on,” said Zach Wulderk, research scientist at Faunalytics.
